Monthly Archives: April 2013

We recognize or respectively we count many Fibonacci numbers at important highs and lows. In case of Fibonacci numbers gold tends to form important highs and lows!
Actually gold is in its 20th months of its down-move. 21 is a Fibonacci number as well. So, seen from the Fibonacci count gold is situated shortly before a very important turn. That may happen as early as in the actual 20th month, maybe in the 21st month.

If gold wanted to perform exactly as it did during the important tops and lows of the past five years it wouldn’t be allowed to form its first significant low before the 21st month of the correction. So in May 2013 we’d see that low which will be fallen a little below again till the 5th trading day of the 22nd month of the correction. That would be on 06/07/2013. Not before that it might start off with the next important up-leg.

But I think, in sentimental view gold has really got a good chance to form a very significant low with the actual candle already. As well as they were at the end of the 34 month Bull Run also at the possible end of a correction the emotions are completely in the aiming position.

Let’s consider again candle # 34 of the last Bull Run. It was an exaggeration upwards, a long white candle marking its high above at the 4th double arc – exhaustion… a move of fatigue – emotions in the aiming position. Panic-struck the last bulls are buying the price upwards. The fright is following next month. The first hefty correction is ringing in the turn downwards.

Let’s consider the 2008 low, the last red candle into the 2008 low. The Lehman panic is there, the last ones are going short selling their stocks – deep red candle – washout.

In April 2013 we newly experienced a panic candle – blood red, everything is finished – the possible final washout! Maybe May 2013 will produce a small lower low than the actual 1321.50 of Tuesday night. Maybe it will until the 5th trading day of the month being 05/07/2013.

But perhaps gold will fall even lower, maybe down to 1100$. I don’t know. In the presence of panic everything is possible. Gold is just in the 20th month of its correction being possibly forced to go on correcting as many as four more weeks. This temporal aspect would permit a still much lower price crash than the actual 1321.50.

Updated At 7:09 Am 24/April/Delhi/India